A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
